Special Notice / Hearing: None__
Vote Required: Majority
To: Honorable Board of Supervisors
From: Michael Callagy, County Manager
Iliana Rodriguez, Deputy County Manager
Subject: Strategic Plan for Census 2020 Project
RECOMMENDATION:
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Adopt a resolution accepting the Office of Community Affairs strategic plan affirming the County of San Mateo’s support of and partnership with the United States Census Bureau in ensuring a complete and accurate count for Census 2020.
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BACKGROUND:
Census - History and Challenges
As mandated by the United States Constitution (Article 1, Section 2), an “actual Enumeration” of the population living in the United States, citizens or noncitizens alike, is required to be conducted every ten years. The decennial census is the cornerstone of our democracy, ensuring equitable political representation and fair allocation of resources at all levels of government. In addition, census data informs important decisions made across social and business sectors regarding programs, products, and services. Therefore, ensuring an accurate count in the Census 2020 is essential.
There are several challenges facing the upcoming census. Despite declining self-response rates, the Census Bureau will be required to conduct the Census 2020 at a lower cost per household than in 2010. There will be fewer local offices, less field staff, and the primary strategy for data collection will be via internet (raising concerns about access and information security). The projected self-response rate for Census 2020 is 55% (significantly lower than 63.5% in 2010).1 The costs to the Census Bureau for Census 2020 operations are underfunded by at least 50 percent compared to the levels found necessary by the Government Accountability Office for the last decennial.2 Due to these issues, the Government Accountability Office has rated the Census 2020 at high risk.3
The Census Bureau faces challenges counting certain households and population groups, regardless of budget and staffing. These include recent immigrants, households with limited English proficiency, households with low income, racial/ethnic minorities, children under 5 years old, persons who are disabled, rural residents, renters, and those with unstable or unconventional housing. California has historically been the hardest-to-count state in the nation. In 2016, about 75% of all Californians belonged to one or more groups that tend to be undercounted.
The County of San Mateo is home to many of these hard to count groups, including foreign-born (35%) and those that speak a language other than English at home (47%).4 Additionally, we learned from the Census Survey in 2010 that the use of PO boxes pose a specific challenge for our County, as they are not an acceptable address by the Census Bureau. The unincorporated areas of the County contain a significant number of PO boxes, and therefore in 2010 were returned to the Census Bureau as ‘undeliverable.’ Currently, there are approximately 30,000 PO Boxes in San Mateo County.
There are also new barriers facing the Census 2020 that will require significant efforts to address:
1. Citizenship Question: One of the most significant changes to the Census 2020 survey is the reinstatement of a citizenship question, the first time the government has done this since the 1950 Census.5 This question is likely to discourage immigrants, who are facing a negative and uncertain climate, from participating.6
2. Distrust & Data Privacy: There is a widening distrust of government among diverse segments of the population (immigrant and nonimmigrant alike), raising concerns about how census data will be used and whether it will remain confidential.
3. Online Survey: Heightening data privacy concerns is the fact that, for the first time, the bulk of census responses are expected to be collected online (approximately only 20% to receive paper version in initial mailings). In addition to security challenges, this poses barriers for vulnerable communities and populations without digital access and computer literacy.
An undercount in the Census 2020 could have significant impact on the State of California and San Mateo County. In 2015, California received almost $77 billion from the federal government in funding based on the census count. For each individual not counted in the Census 2020, California could lose up to $1958 per year of federal funds for the following decade.7 The State Legislative Analyst’s office has warned that a greater than average undercount could result in California losing a congressional seat.8 Therefore, the California 2018 Budget Act allocated $90.3 million statewide to support Census 2020 in an effort to ensure a full and accurate count.
In addition to congressional apportionment, census data is used to draw boundaries for every level of government in California down to the level of county, city, town, and school districts. If segments of the County are not counted in 2020, their voices may not be fully considered when making important budget, program and policy decisions. An incomplete count could also hinder the County from receiving a fair and sufficient share of federal funds that support critical programs in education, foster and child care, nutrition, housing, health, and transportation.
Efforts to Date - Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)
From April to August 2018, the County participated in the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA). This was the only opportunity for jurisdictions to improve the accuracy and completeness of the 2020 Census by ensuring that the Census Bureau’s Master Address File (MAF) contains every valid address possible. The County was given 120 calendar days, or until August 2, 2018, to complete and make its edits.
The primary methods for making these address improvements were:
1. Drawing from a variety of existing address databases; and
2. Visually inspecting key neighborhoods, through both canvassing and digital imagery analysis, to identify unconventional housing units missing from existing data sources.
LUCA is an extremely important step needed to ensure an accurate count in the Census 2020 survey, however most people are not aware of what this process entails. Working with community-based organizations helped inform residents, both volunteers as well as neighborhood residents, about the significance of providing an updated and correct Master Address File to the US Census Bureau. Without a correct address, housing units will not receive a census survey.
Partnerships proved invaluable to the success of LUCA efforts. The County worked with our 20 cities, the Silicon Valley Community Foundation, the Grove Foundation, three core community-based organizations, and many departments within the County including: Human Services Agency, Information Services Department GIS team, Office of Education, Planning and Building Department, Code Compliance, Office of Sustainability, Immigrant Services, and the Sheriff’s Department. Additional support from the school districts, the Postmaster at La Honda, and the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) from the City of South San Francisco also played an important role. These partnerships will serve as an important initial foundation for the considerable outreach efforts that will be necessary to encourage participation in the 2020 Census.
The Master Address File received by San Mateo County originally contained 285,583 records spread over the 158 census tracts that comprise the county. The County submitted 30,179 addresses to the MAF that were previously missing or invalid (a net gain of 10.5%). If these addresses were left off the MAF, there could have been a loss in federal funding of up to $1.18 billion between 2020 and 2030 (assuming a low estimate of 2 persons per residence added).
The US Census Bureau is now reviewing the County’s submission, and we will have an opportunity to appeal any decisions they make about the addresses submitted.
Participating in this appeals process will protect the investment the County and its partners have made in LUCA. Attachment A provides detailed information about how the County conducted the LUCA, including how hard-to-count or potential low-response rate households were identified, and how the County collaborated with other government departments, cities, and local organizations, as well as maps presenting final results.
DISCUSSION:
Following the success of these initial steps, County staff is presenting the Board with a strategic framework and plan to ensure the accurate and complete Census 2020 count of all people living in San Mateo County.
This plan aims to leverage resources and partnerships in order to maximize efforts and impact. The strategic plan draws from census experts, State decision-makers, Census Bureau materials, best practices for Complete Count Committees, findings from non-census outreach campaigns, local stakeholder input, as well as past experiences from Census Coordinators. The County is positioned to lead and execute the plan, setting a strong foundation for the most complete count possible.
In addition to the Census Bureau, there are many stakeholders at the state and local levels working to ensure an accurate Census 2020 count. Learning from and coordinating with these efforts, the County will implement a comprehensive communication campaign to promote Census 2020 as well as create a collaborative structure that leverages community strengths, promotes collective action, and supports the participation of all residents.
The County will form a Census Steering Committee consisting of representatives from each district, priority areas, and departments with direct access to hard-to-count residents. The County Census Steering Committee, led by the County Manager (or his designee), will meet regularly to provide guidance and support for county-wide efforts. The County will serve as the coordinating body for the cities, providing regular updates to city officials along with messaging and materials for dissemination.
The Census Bureau categorizes the Hard-to-Count population into four segments.9 Many County residents fall into these categories. Those that are hard to locate and hard to persuade (immigrants, minorities, and others who are suspicious of the government) will be very reluctant to provide personal information to the Census Bureau. It will take considerable effort by multiple trusted sources to convince these residents to participate in the census. Those that are hard-to-contact (ex. housing unstable, nonstandard living) will need to be reached through point of service and other community programs. Those that are hard to interview will need specialized outreach and access support.
While the County is a trusted source of programs and services for many residents, the unique challenges facing the Census 2020 will require community-wide support and action. Therefore, the County will create a local Complete Count Committee structure that integrates community leaders across sectors, population segments, and localities to jointly develop and implement effective outreach strategies while maximizing resources.
The County Manager's Office of Community Affairs will manage and support the County Census Steering and Complete Count Committees to ensure coordination and bi-directional communication across sectors.
The Complete Count Committee (CCC) will include stakeholders across health, human services, education, libraries, housing, media, business, and community sectors to provide leadership and support for county-wide Census 2020 efforts. Membership will reflect diversity in population segments served, including age, race/ethnicity, immigration status, and language. The CCC will launch in January 2019 and meet monthly until June 2020.
Members of the CCC will lead the formation of Strategy Work Groups to include experts in access, media, community outreach, and other areas that the CCC chooses to focus on (such as recruitment of enumerators). These work groups will meet bi-monthly from March - August 2019 to craft local strategies, messaging, and toolkits to promote census participation.
Beginning in June 2019, Community Action Teams for each County area will be formed to implement census promotion strategies. These teams will be led by community-based organizations with local knowledge and expertise in engaging diverse segments of the resident population. They will meet bi-monthly through May 2020 and provide regular updates to the CCC.
All efforts will be grounded in research, guided by best practice, and driven by cutting edge data analytics to ensure that efforts are targeted, impactful, and cost-effective. The County will lead the development of a comprehensive communication strategy. Information regarding Census 2020 will be disseminated in various formats and languages via media (traditional, ethnic, social and digital) as well as through community outreach (events, point of service, canvassing). The Complete Count Committee structure will ensure that communication regarding the Census 2020 will be consistent yet tailored across sectors, population segments, and localities.
In the 2010 Census, the County of San Mateo had a 75% self-response rate. The County’s goal for the Census 2020 is to achieve the same or higher self-response rate, despite the additional challenges faced by a hard-to-count population and the current political climate. Maintaining a high response rate is especially critical since the Census Bureau is expected to face significant challenges in recruiting well qualified enumerators as well as reduced budget for non-response follow up.
Further, the upcoming Census will also be used as an opportunity to contribute to important long-term outcomes that support the County’s Shared Vision 2025:
• Increased civic engagement of residents
• Increased representation of vulnerable communities
• Strengthened county-wide networks for ongoing collaboration and outreach
Attachment B provides detailed information about the County’s Census 2020 strategic plan, including a strategic framework, implementation plan, the project’s goals and outcomes.
FISCAL IMPACT:
With the significant underfunding of the decennial census at the federal level, the challenges faced, and the effort required, it is estimated that it will cost approximately $3.2 million over the next two years to ensure a complete and most accurate count possible of all San Mateo County residents. The proposed budget will allow for the County to develop localized messaging and outreach materials, execute a comprehensive communication campaign (including media buys), fund outreach services, coordinate and facilitate countywide efforts, and appropriately staff the project through its completion.
The County will continue to advocate vigorously for the public and private partners who benefit from the County’s complete count plan to share the costs, leverage resources where possible, and seek opportunities (i.e., funding, in-kind, resources) from philanthropic partnerships.
It is anticipated that the State will provide counties with financial support for outreach efforts, however the apportionment for local counties has not been determined. The remainder of the budget request will be addressed in the upcoming budget cycle.
ATTACHMENTS:
1. Board Resolution
2. Local Update of Census Addresses Project Report [Attachment A]
3. Census 2020 Strategic Plan and Framework [Attachment B]
References
1 https://docs.house.gov/meetings/GO/GO00/20171012/106505/HHRG-115-GO00-Transcript-20171012.pdf
2 https://federalnewsnetwork.com/management/2017/08/watchdogs-worry-census-2020-headed-for-inaccurate-results-higher-price-tag/
3 https://www.gao.gov/highrisk/2020_decennial_census/why_did_study
4 https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/sanmateocountycalifornia
5 https://www.census.gov/history/pdf/1950_population_questionnaire.pdf
6 Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality, Citizenship Question Non Response.
7 George Washington University, Counting for Dollars 2020.
8 http://lao.ca.gov/Publications/Report/3780
9 https://www2.census.gov/cac/sac/meetings/2018-09/reaching-hard-to-count-populations.pdf